No Winners Right Now10 Jul 2002
In between all the soccer matches, bicycle races, plane crashes, and corporate crashes, there's an election campaign going on here in Germany. A Forsa poll released today shows that niether Black-Yellow (Union 39%/FDP 8%) under Stoiber nor Red-Green (SPD 36%/Greens 7%) under Schröder would have a majority. The ex-communist PDS (6%) holds the balance of power. The PDS would tolerate a Red-Green government, but it remains to be seen whether Schröder would tolerate being tolerated. The trend for the Union/FDP is falling, as this is their lowest rating in 8 months.
On a personal level on who Germans would prefer as Chancellor, Schröder leads Stoiber by a wide margin (49% to 36% in the last poll I saw). Not that it matters... German election ballots list parties and not Chancellor candidates.
My feeling is that Schröder is slicker than Slick Willy when it comes to campaigning, and that Stoiber, used to safe majorities in Bavaria, is a babe in the woods when it comes to a real election and has no idea what's going to hit him. But I'm rooting for Stoiber to lose, so take my opinion with a grain of salt.